Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

Main Article Content

Kamyar Mansori Erfan Ayubi Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani Shiva Mansouri Hanis Somayeh Khazaei Mohadeseh Sani Yousef Moradi Salman Khazaei Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi


Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index.

Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human development indexes (HDIs) were obtained from the World Bank database. The surveyed countries were divided into four groups according to the HDI distribution. The Spearman correlation coefficient and one-way ANOVA test were used for assessing the association of HIV/ AIDS indicators and HDI.

Results: The highest rates of HIV/AIDS prevalence and incidence, and associated mortality in East and Southern Africa countries were 51.73%, 46.33% and 42.3%, respectively. Moreover, the highest and lowest global age-standardized rates of incidence and prevalence of HIV/AIDS was seen in adults ranging from 15-49 years of age for both low and high HDI countries. The prevalence and incidence rates of HIV/AIDS each had an inverse correlation with HDI and its four indicators (life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and GNI per capita).

Conclusion: Less developed countries with lower HDI show greater severity of the AIDS epidemic. Thus, it is essential to pay more attention to HIV/AIDS control and prevention programs in these countries. 


Akeroyd, A.V. (1994). HIV/AIDS in eastern and southern Africa. Review of African Political Economy 21, 173-184.
Arndt, C., and Lewis, J.D. (2000). The macro implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: a preliminary assessment. South African Journal of Economics 68, 380-392.
Ärnlöv, J. (2016). Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet HIV 3, E361-E387.
Billebeau, G., Vodovar, N., Sadoune, M., Launay, J.M., Beauvais, F., and Cohen-Solal, A. (2017). Effects of a cardiac rehabilitation programme on plasma cardiac biomarkers in patients with chronic heart failure. European journal of preventive cardiology, 2047487317705488.
Boulogne, M., Sadoune, M., Launay, J., Baudet, M., Cohen-Solal, A., and Logeart, D. (2017). Inflammation versus mechanical stretch biomarkers over time in acutely decompensated heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. International Journal of Cardiology 226, 53-59.
Boutayeb, A. (2009). The impact of HIV/AIDS on human development in African countries. BMC Public Health 9, S3.
Colecraft, E. (2008). HIV/AIDS: nutritional implications and impact on human development. Proceedings of the Nutrition Society 67, 109-113.
De Cock, K.M., Mbori-Ngacha, D., and Marum, E. (2002). Shadow on the continent: public health and HIV/AIDS in Africa in the 21st century. The Lancet 360, 67-72.
de Freitas Souza, B.S., Silva, D.N., Carvalho, R.H., de Almeida Sampaio, G.L., Paredes, B.D., França, L.A., Azevedo, C.M., Vasconcelos, J.F., Meira, C.S., and Neto, P.C. (2017). Association of Cardiac Galectin-3 Expression, Myocarditis, and Fibrosis in Chronic Chagas Disease Cardiomyopathy. The American Journal of Pathology 187, 1134-1146.
Dorling D, S.M., Smith GD HIV and global health: global inequality of life expectancy due to AIDS. BMJ: British Medical Journal 2006;332:662-4 .
Gesesew, H.A., Mwanri, L., Ward, P., Woldemicahel, K., and Feyissa, G.T. (2016). Factors associated with discontinuation of anti‐retroviral therapy among adults living with HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia: a systematic review protocol. JBI Database of Systematic Reviews and Implementation Reports 14, 26-37.
HIV/AIDS, J.U.N.P.o. (2010). Global report: UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic 2010 (UNAIDS).
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) (2015). GBD Compare. Seattle, WA: IHME, University of Washington, 2015.
Ledwidge, M., Gallagher, J., Conlon, C., Tallon, E., O’Connell, E., Dawkins, I., Watson, C., O’Hanlon, R., Bermingham, M., and Patle, A. (2013). Natriuretic peptide–based screening and collaborative care for heart failure: the STOP-HF randomized trial. Jama 310, 66-74.
Lou, L.-X., Chen, Y., Yu, C.-H., Li, Y.-M., and Ye, J. (2014). National HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates are associated with the Human Development Index. American journal of infection control 42, 1044-1048.
Murray, C.J., Vos, T., Lozano, R., Naghavi, M., Flaxman, A.D., Michaud, C., Ezzati, M., Shibuya, K., Salomon, J.A., and Abdalla, S. (2013). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The lancet 380, 2197-2223.
Piot, P., Greener, R., and Russell, S. (2007). Squaring the circle: AIDS, poverty, and human development. PLoS Med 4, e314.
UNADIS (2016). Fact sheet 2016.
UNAIDS (2016a). Aids information: Data.
UNAIDS (2016b). How AIDS changed everything — MDG6: 15 years, 15 lessons of hope from the AIDS response.
Whiteside, A. (2002). Poverty and HIV/AIDS in Africa. Third world quarterly 23, 313-332.
WHO (2016). Global Health Observatory (GHO) data(HIV/AIDS).
Wong, P.C., Guo, J., and Zhang, A. (2017). The renal and cardiovascular effects of natriuretic peptides. Advances in physiology education 41, 179-185.
Yancy, C.W., Jessup, M., Bozkurt, B., Butler, J., Casey, D.E., Jr., Colvin, M.M., Drazner, M.H., Filippatos, G.S., Fonarow, G.C., Givertz, M.M., et al. (2017). 2017 ACC/AHA/HFSA Focused Update of the 2013 ACCF/AHA Guideline for the Management of Heart Failure: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines and the Heart Failure Society of America. Journal of cardiac failure, 10.1016/j.cardfail.2017.1004.1014.


Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
MANSORI, Kamyar et al. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index. Biomedical Research and Therapy, [S.l.], v. 4, n. 06, p. 1400-1410, june 2017. ISSN 2198-4093. Available at: <>. Date accessed: 23 oct. 2017. doi:
Research articles

Most read articles by the same author(s)